We All Knew This Was Coming

I confess, I’m baffled. All this hue and cry around Trump withdrawing the USA from the Paris Agreement – his second such attempt, though this one will probably be successful – has left me wondering why everyone appears to be blindsided. He told us what he was going to do. He’s done it before. Why is everyone so surprised?

The time has come to sideline the USA from the climate fight –  yeah, they’re one of the world’s richest countries, they lead the world’s tech and financial markets… and they’re also determined to duck their climate responsibilities. 

So now, the rest of the signatories to the Paris Agreement, led by China, the European Union, India, and Canada must step up to cover the gap left by the USA. 

What Is That Gap?

The gap is threefold: financial, strategic, and moral. 

Financially, the U.S. was historically the largest contributor to global climate funds, pledging billions to initiatives like the Green Climate Fund, which supports vulnerable nations in transitioning to clean energy and adapting to climate impacts. Trump’s withdrawal—now cemented—halts critical funding streams, leaving developing nations scrambling to secure resources for renewable infrastructure and disaster resilience. Without U.S. contributions, the global $100 billion annual climate finance goal, a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, now hinges on other wealthy nations doubling down.

Strategically, the vacuum of U.S. leadership emboldens climate laggards to drag their feet. But here’s the twist: the world is moving on. China, both the world’s largest absolute emitter and the global renewables juggernaut, invests more in solar and wind than the next three nations combined. The EU’s Green Deal pledges carbon neutrality by 2050, while Canada’s aggressive carbon pricing model proves that decarbonization doesn’t require economic sacrifice. Even U.S. cities and corporations, defying the federal government, are working toward net-zero targets.

Morally, the U.S. has chosen to abdicate its responsibility as a historical emitter. Americans produce nearly 15 metric tons of CO2 per capita annually—triple the global average—yet their new federal government continues to prioritize fossil fuel interests over planetary survival. This isn’t just hypocrisy; it’s a betrayal of the intergenerational contract to leave behind a better world. The message? America’s current political elite would rather let coastal cities drown, wildfires rage, and droughts dry up economies than disrupt oil profits.

The India Factor: A Climate Paradox

India—the world’s third-largest emitter—walks a tightrope between development and decarbonization. With 2.4 metric tons of CO2 per capita (less than a fifth of the U.S. figure), its emissions reflect its vast population, not profligacy. Yet, India’s energy demand is skyrocketing, and its coal-dominated grid still powers 70% of its electricity. Prime Minister Modi’s pledge to hit 500 GW of renewable capacity by 2030 and derive 40% of installed power from non-fossil sources by 2030 (already achieved in 2023) signals ambition, but execution faces hurdles in the form of bureaucratic delays, fossil fuel lobbying, and financing shortfalls.

Critically, India demands climate justice. It rightly insists that wealthy nations—historically responsible for the crisis—shoulder the greater financial burden of the fight against climate change. At COP26, India pushed for a $1 trillion global climate finance commitment by 2030, far beyond the current $100 billion pledge. Without this, its coal phaseout will lag, risking a 25% increase in emissions by 2030.

India is no passive player. It leads the International Solar Alliance, mobilizing $1 trillion for solar infrastructure across 120+ nations, and its Green Hydrogen Mission aims to produce 5M metric tonnes of green hydrogen per year by 2030. 

The world must invest in India’s success: subsidize its renewables leap, share grid-balancing tech, and retire its coal plants early. If treated as a partner, not a charity case, India could tip the scales toward global net zero.

Onwards and Hopefully Upwards

The path forward is clear: cut the U.S. loose. The world cannot afford to coddle climate delinquents. Let China, the EU, and emerging coalitions like the Climate Ambition Alliance broker deals without America’s obstructive shadow.

While the U.S. sulks in denial, the EU must tighten carbon border taxes, China should cease coal plant exports, and India requires a Marshall Plan-style green investment package. Track progress through satellite methane monitoring, corporate carbon disclosures, and debt-for-climate swaps. Redirect trade incentives to reward climate action, sanction polluters, and funnel capital into green tech.

This isn’t surrender. It’s pragmatism. The U.S. may rejoin the fight someday—when political winds shift—but the planet cannot wait around for its redemption arc. We, the rest of the world, have the tools, the capital, and the knowledge. All we need is the gumption and the resolve to treat the climate crisis like the existential threat it is—with or without the world’s most notorious freeloader.